Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.049832 0.056602 0.064165 0.073282 0.084024 0.096341 0.111624
2026-01-04 0.041803 0.050753 0.061610 0.075896 0.094422 0.117941 0.150559
2026-01-11 0.035242 0.045289 0.058374 0.076994 0.103362 0.140240 0.197336
2026-01-18 0.030017 0.040582 0.055255 0.077711 0.112307 0.165547 0.257843
2026-01-25 0.025257 0.035690 0.051026 0.076090 0.117846 0.188264 0.324886
2026-02-01 0.021100 0.030977 0.046233 0.072677 0.120001 0.207005 0.395495
2026-02-08 0.018561 0.028305 0.044128 0.073257 0.129466 0.242940 0.521348
2026-02-15 0.016472 0.026016 0.042248 0.073892 0.139599 0.285299 0.692538
2026-02-22 0.014876 0.024293 0.041042 0.075584 0.152798 0.341537 0.949362
2026-03-01 0.013472 0.022685 0.039763 0.076901 0.166041 0.406142 1.302870
2026-03-08 0.011995 0.020721 0.037470 0.075588 0.172970 0.459301 1.689912
2026-03-15 0.010380 0.018276 0.033832 0.070474 0.168700 0.478256 1.972269
2026-03-22 0.009484 0.017117 0.032680 0.071062 0.180895 0.562182 2.742438
2026-03-29 0.008822 0.016329 0.032183 0.073197 0.199022 0.684899 4.072732
2026-04-05 0.008136 0.015397 0.031214 0.073928 0.213604 0.810278 5.895980
2026-04-12 0.007513 0.014512 0.030207 0.074347 0.227840 0.952920 8.607727
2026-04-19 0.006843 0.013437 0.028577 0.072599 0.233783 1.064269 11.745551
2026-04-26 0.006169 0.012274 0.026555 0.069211 0.232114 1.134899 14.977934
2026-05-03 0.005762 0.011664 0.025814 0.069621 0.246749 1.333245 22.992502
2026-05-10 0.005402 0.011114 0.025141 0.070105 0.262473 1.571500 36.532229
2026-05-17 0.005118 0.010711 0.024788 0.071597 0.284375 1.909425 64.062748
2026-05-24 0.004847 0.010306 0.024363 0.072749 0.305899 2.303763 116.423748
2026-05-31 0.004516 0.009715 0.023335 0.071457 0.313948 2.590570 188.120219